2021
Post-pandemic bull market
Strategy: 222 trades, 64.41% win rate, 1.60 profit factor, year-end equity $16,172.09
SPY: +21.23%, year-end value $12,123.44
Market context
2021 was characterized by a strong economic recovery following the COVID-era market disruption. Equity markets broadly advanced as investors rotated into growth and cyclical sectors.
Summary
In a favorable recovery market, the strategy materially outperformed SPY. The account advanced 61.72% versus 21.23% for the benchmark.
2022
Bear market and capital preservation
Strategy: 155 trades, 58.71% win rate, 0.99 profit factor, year-end equity $16,262.03
SPY: -19.48%, year-end value $9,761.59
Market context
2022 was one of the most difficult years for investors since the Global Financial Crisis. Rising inflation, aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, and recession fears pushed the S&P 500 into an official bear market. The index fell more than 20% from its highs during the year.
Summary
In a difficult bear-market year, the strategy preserved capital far better than the benchmark, finishing slightly positive while SPY declined 19.48%.
2023
Concentrated recovery market
Strategy: 241 trades, 55.60% win rate, 1.04 profit factor, year-end equity $17,227.17
SPY: +24.29%, year-end value $12,132.37
Market context
The S&P 500 recovered strongly in 2023. However, a large proportion of the gains were driven by a relatively small group of mega-cap technology companies often referred to as the "Magnificent Seven." Market concentration reached unusually high levels during the recovery.
Summary
2023 was the weakest relative year in the sample. The strategy remained profitable and reached a new equity high, but it did not keep pace with the narrow technology-led benchmark rally.
2024
Breakout year
Strategy: 306 trades, 68.63% win rate, 2.17 profit factor, year-end equity $43,965.51
SPY: +23.30%, year-end value $14,959.80
Market context
2024 was one of the strongest equity-market environments of the decade. Artificial intelligence, semiconductor demand, and technology infrastructure spending became dominant themes throughout the year. Many market participants viewed AI-related companies as the primary driver of equity performance.
Summary
2024 was the defining year of the backtest: strongest annual profit, highest profit factor, highest win rate, and nearly 132 percentage points of excess return versus SPY.
2025
Positive follow-through
Strategy: 228 trades, 55.70% win rate, 1.06 profit factor, year-end equity $49,139.03
SPY: +16.35%, year-end value $17,406.13
Market context
Markets remained constructive and continued benefiting from AI-related investment themes, although returns became more normalized compared to the explosive gains seen previously. Technology and AI remained major drivers of market sentiment.
Summary
Performance moderated after the exceptional 2024 run. The strategy remained profitable, continued compounding from a larger equity base, and modestly trailed SPY for the year.